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Hot July CPI Tilts Balance Toward 50bps

NORGES BANK
Summary:
  • July CPI tilts balance of risks to another 50bps rate rise this month
  • Bank looks to head off the highest inflation rate in 25 years
  • No new rate path projections or economic forecasts due
July’s inflation release saw a broad-based rise in prices, with food prices a particular hotspot having lurched higher by 7.6% on the month. Nonetheless, the bank’s attention will have been on the CPI-ATE measure, which ticked up to 4.5% on the year, a series high on records going back to 1996.


This exceeded sell-side forecasts as well as the projections made by the bank in their June Monetary Policy Report. They had pencilled in CPI-ATE rising to 4.20% in Q1 next year, before drifting lower across the forecast horizon. It is now clear that these projections will require a hasty upgrade at the September forecasting round.

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