House Majority Whip Emmer Wins Speaker Nomination

House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-IN) has won the internal ballot to become the Republican nomination for Speaker of the House of Representatives.

• Emmer becomes the third GOP nominee in as many weeks following the failed bids of House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) and House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-OH).
• The Republican conference is now taking a roll call of members to sound out support. It should be noted that Emmer received fewer votes that either Scalise or Jordan, suggesting an uphill battle.
• Emmer's nomination, which will progress to the floor of the House for a full vote of all members, is considered the most market-friendly result with some Democrats indicating they may be willing to vote present on the floor to ease his nomination.
• It is unclear if Emmer has sufficient votes to win a floor vote without Democrat intervention. At least one Republican has stated publicly he will vote against Emmer due to historical support for same sex marriage. But there is significant political will to get a speaker in the chair this week and the extended paralysis which followed the ouster of former speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA).
• Should Democrats support Emmer, they will likely seek concessions on funding the government to the levels agreed in the debt ceiling deal, a commitment to put Ukraine funding on the floor, and some reforms to the House rules to prevent future crises.