House of Representatives set to vote....>

NETHERLANDS: House of Representatives set to vote today on ratification of

EU-Canada trade deal (CETA), with strong risk that the deal could be defeated.

- PM Mark Rutte's gov't holds a majority of 1 in House, and with parties on

right and left opposing the deal. Labour Party initially supported CETA, but

will now vote against citing lack of protection for labour/env't standards. 

- Even if CETA passes in House (vote expected around 1500CET, 1400GMT, 0900ET),

likely to be defeated in Senate where gov't lacks majority.

- Defeat won't necessarily kill CETA, with a workaround possible as seen with

Ukraine Association Agreement in 2016. Nevertheless, would mark 1st ever defeat

for an EU FTA by a national parliament and if Netherlands informs Brussels

ratification has been "permanently and definitively" defeated, its provisional

application is suspended with tariffs reinstated. 

- Wrangling over CETA could be seen as a forewarning for prospect of a UK-EU

trade deal being agreed to and ratified by end-2020. Although CETA has been

provisionally applied since 2017, it lacks full legal status until ratified by

all member state parliaments.