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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
A strong month in Congress for Democrats continues to be reflected in the polls for control of the House of Representatives.
- The FiveThirtyEight deluxe model predicts that Republicans win the Speaker's gavel in 80 out of 100 sample elections but the trend is tightening. At the start of July the GOP were predicted to win 88 out of 100 sample elections.
- The polling suggests that a 'red wave,' which was widely predicted earlier this year is unlikely to eventuate.
- The Real Clear Politics generic Congressional ballot also continues to show a dramatic tightening. The current margin is .3% - the narrowest margin since November '21, shortly before the collapse of President Biden's legislative agenda, a political damaging event which was further compounded by the COVID-19 omicron surge in January '22.
Figure 1: Control of the House over time (FiveThirtyEight)
Figure 2: Generic Congressional Ballot (Real Clear Politics)
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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