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House Prices Still Fall, But At Slower Pace Compared To Dec

CHINA DATA

Jan house price data saw a slight improvement on the Dec outcomes. New home prices fell -0.37% m/m, versus -0.45% in Dec. Existing home prices were down -0.68% m/m, versus a -0.79% fall in Dec.

  • Still for new home sales this marks the 8th straight month of price falls. For used homes this was the 9th straight monthly drop.
  • In y/y terms new home prices were down -1.24% y/y (versus -0.89% in Dec). For existing homes, we are down -4.45% (versus -4.07% in Dec).
  • By city, we had new house price falls in 56 cities in Jan (62 Dec). For existing homes, it was 68 (versus 70 in Dec). There were 11 cities where new home prices rose (7 in Dec), while 2 cities recorded a rise for existing homes (up from none in Dec).
  • By large city, Beijing new and existing home prices were down slightly in the month. In Shanghai, new home prices rose 0.4%, but for existing homes we fell -0.8% m/m.
  • It is likely too soon to draw positive biases around the house price outlook, it does suggest some stabilization as we progressed from 2023 into 2024. The caveat is that the LNY period carried mixed trends for housing transactions.
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