House Rules Committee To Consider Government Funding Measure Today

Congress returns from a six-week recess today, tasked with legislating a stop-gap funding measure to extend funding for government agencies beyond September 30. Although the chance of a government shutdown is remote, Congressional leaders are under a time squeeze to negotiate a compromise spending measure that doesn’t risk a miscalculation.

• House Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-LA) Continuing Resolution, unveiled on Friday, would punt funding for six months, through March 28, and includes the SAVE Act, a Democrat-opposed partisan bill requiring proof of citizenship when registering to vote.
• The House Rules Committee is expected to discharge the bill to the House floor when it meets at 16:00 ET 20:00 BST, although conservative committee member Rep Tom Massie (R-KY) is a wildcard as he has indicated he will vote against the bill on the floor. The bill is expected to come up for a vote in the House on Wednesday, at the earliest.
• Republicans likely don’t see much chance of the SAVE Act making the final package. The strategic goal of the negotiations is to put Democrats on the defensive over ‘voter integrity’ ahead of the election and keep immigration live for former President Donald Trump and frontline House Republicans in districts where border security is a key wedge issue.
• Our baseline scenario is that the SAVE Act will be dropped in upcoming negotiations and the CR will be revised to extend funding into December rather than March, allowing time for Congress to hammer out a FY25 omnibus spending package before the next White House administration.