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Household Excess Savings Seen The Largest Upside Risk To Growth

CANADA
HomepageBulletMarketsFixed Income NewsForeign Exchange NewsCanada Bank of Canada Market News
  • Within BOC’s Market Participants Survey for 4Q22 published today, the widest perceived upside risk to the growth outlook of the 27 participants surveyed was a greater deployment of accumulated savings.
  • It’s a useful reminder that whilst the Canadian household savings rate has fallen considerably from pandemic surges, at 5.7% in 3Q22 it was still much higher relative to its pre-pandemic five year average of 2.2%.
  • That’s in contrast to the US savings rate of 2.9% in Q4 vs its historical pre-pandemic average of 7.6%, running down ‘excess savings’ generated early in the pandemic in the process unlike in the case of Canada.

Canada household savings rate (white) vs US equivalent (yellow)Source: Bloomberg

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  • Within BOC’s Market Participants Survey for 4Q22 published today, the widest perceived upside risk to the growth outlook of the 27 participants surveyed was a greater deployment of accumulated savings.
  • It’s a useful reminder that whilst the Canadian household savings rate has fallen considerably from pandemic surges, at 5.7% in 3Q22 it was still much higher relative to its pre-pandemic five year average of 2.2%.
  • That’s in contrast to the US savings rate of 2.9% in Q4 vs its historical pre-pandemic average of 7.6%, running down ‘excess savings’ generated early in the pandemic in the process unlike in the case of Canada.

Canada household savings rate (white) vs US equivalent (yellow)Source: Bloomberg