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AUSTRALIA DATA: Household Spending Sub Expectations, But Above Recent Y/Y Lows

AUSTRALIA DATA
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Like yesterday's retail sales print, the Nov household spending update was also below expectations. We rose 0.4%m/m (+0.7% was the forecast). In y/y terms we were 2.4% (against a 2.5% forecast). Oct's rise was nudged up to 0.9%m/m versus originally reported as a 0.8% gain. In y/y terms Oct's rise was 3.3% (original estimate of 2.8%). 

  • The ABS noted 6 out of 9 categories rose in Nov, boosted by Black Friday sales. Recreational spending was also firmer, while SUV sales were also strong.
  • Y/Y momentum has eased off the earlier Q4 rise, but we are still above the Sep 2024 trough, see the chart below. This is indicating some firmer Q4 spending trends, much like yesterday's retail update.
  • Around mid-2025 the retail sales indicator will be replaced by this household spending indicator, a more comprehensive measure including services.

Fig 1: Australia Household Spending Y/Y Momentum Still Above Recent Lows 

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Like yesterday's retail sales print, the Nov household spending update was also below expectations. We rose 0.4%m/m (+0.7% was the forecast). In y/y terms we were 2.4% (against a 2.5% forecast). Oct's rise was nudged up to 0.9%m/m versus originally reported as a 0.8% gain. In y/y terms Oct's rise was 3.3% (original estimate of 2.8%). 

  • The ABS noted 6 out of 9 categories rose in Nov, boosted by Black Friday sales. Recreational spending was also firmer, while SUV sales were also strong.
  • Y/Y momentum has eased off the earlier Q4 rise, but we are still above the Sep 2024 trough, see the chart below. This is indicating some firmer Q4 spending trends, much like yesterday's retail update.
  • Around mid-2025 the retail sales indicator will be replaced by this household spending indicator, a more comprehensive measure including services.

Fig 1: Australia Household Spending Y/Y Momentum Still Above Recent Lows 

Keep reading...Show less