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Housing Inflation Remains A Significant Puzzle - Goolsbee

FED
  • Goolsbee: In PCE inflation, I break out the components within core: housing, goods and services. Our 2% target is for the combination and it’s important to remember that those don’t grow at the same rate. For 8-10 years before Covid, we were at or below the 2% target by housing being 3.5%, services 2.5% and goods -1%.
  • Since Covid, goods were a big part of 2023, returning to -1%. Services have come down, still above where they were but were within spitting distance prior to January - the services part looks a little blippy.
  • Housing remains a significant puzzle and challenge, still at 5-6+% inflation. We thought the market rents, which have come down for some time now, would bring official measures down. If that happens we should start to see overall improvement with an optimistic lane back toward 2%. If it doesn’t happen, we’ve got problems.
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