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Housing Tailwind for Rates, Equities Little Weaker

US TSYS SUMMARY

Rates and equities reverted back to negative correlation for the day, rates near highs after the bell (bonds lead, curves bull flattening) while equities pared early gains/traded weaker in the second half (eminis -6.0 after rates close).

  • Modest support after flurry of housing data (new home sales decline 5.9%/Apr), consumer confidence (117.2 for May vs 117.5 in Apr). Fed speakers
    Clarida at crypto conf: (PUTTING A LOT OF WEIGHT ON INFLATION EXPECTATIONS" Bbg, adding "MAY COME A TIME AT UPCOMING
    MEETINGS TO TALK TAPER."
  • Strong $60B 2Y note (91282CCD1) auction trades through with high yield of 0.152% vs. 0.160% WI, strongest in over a year. Tsy futures gain slightly, extend duration..
  • Bid-to-cover 2.74x, highest since Aug '20, compares to 2.49x 5 month average.
  • Indirects take-up climbs to 57.06% vs. 43.35% in April; direct bidder take-up at 18.03% vs. 18.42% last month, primary dealer take-up of 24.91% well below 5-month average of 32.15%.
  • Heavy Jun/Sep quarterly Tsy futures roll volume near 7M ahead Friday's first notice when Sep takes lead contract. Roll appr 60% complete after the bell.
  • The 2-Yr yield is down 0.6bps at 0.1433%, 5-Yr is down 3.2bps at 0.771%, 10-Yr is down 4.1bps at 1.5604%, and 30-Yr is down 4.3bps at 2.2562%.

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