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How Much Protection Do Bonds Offer If Inflation Risks Rise?

US
  • One of the major factors behind the rising popularity of the 60/40 equity bond allocation and the risk parity strategy was the significant positive shift in the equity bond correlation in the late 1990s.
  • The chart below shows the evolution of the 3-year rolling correlation between US equity returns and changes in the 10Y yield; a rising positive correlation would imply that investors owing bonds would get 'protected' from equity drawdowns in risk-off periods.
  • One major problem that we have observed in recent years is that with interest rates approaching 0% in the US, participants have been asking themselves if bonds will still serve as a good hedge against uncertainty and rising price volatility in the future.
  • We saw that the 'All-Weather' risk parity and 60/40 portfolios were down 28% and 18%, respectively, from peak to trough during the March 2020 panic.
  • How much protection do bonds really offer if inflationary pressures continue to increase in the medium term?


Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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