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HSBC Also Expects Unchanged LPR

CHINA
HSBC says: "We expect the People's Bank of China (PBoC) to stay on hold in May with the 1-year Loan Prime Rate unchanged at 3.85%. The recent money and credit supply data slowed more than expected, partially due to a seasonal fall in April and a high base effect from last year. The tightened policy stance on property financing and containing financial risks became more effective in terms of
  • limiting the expansion of short-term bank loans and shadow-banking credit. Moreover, real front-end interest rates started to fall as nominal interbank rates remained stable while the deflator
  • started to rise on the back of higher PPI inflation, partly offsetting the tightening brought on by the decline in credit growth. As SOE default risks linger, the PBoC is likely to keep interbank liquidity conditions stable to soothe the market sentiment. The PBoC reiterated in its Q1 monetary policy report that they will push for further reductions in actual interest rates, dismissing the market's
  • concerns about an abrupt shift to policy tightening. Hence, we believe the PBoC will keep the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) unchanged at 3.85% throughout 2021."

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