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HSBC Expect Shallow SARB Rate Cutting Cycle to Commence in November

SOUTH AFRICA
  • HSBC think the SARB will remain cautious of the upside inflation risks stemming from El Niño, higher oil prices, sticky core price growth, a volatile ZAR and elevated inflation expectations, resulting in a shallow rate cutting cycle that will only commence in November 2024.
  • They had thought the disinflationary impulse from food prices would soon start to ebb, yet the latest data suggests there may be scope for food price growth to slow further over the coming months.
  • HSBC lower their headline inflation forecast by 10bps to 5.2% y/y in 2024 but keep the 2025 estimate unchanged at 5.1%. Their core inflation estimates are now 10bps lower at 4.8% for this year, with sticky service inflation the primary driver.
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