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HSBC: Inflation forecasts to broadly endorse the market path

BOE
  • “Expect a 9-0 vote for a 25bps rise in Bank Rate to 0.50% on 3 February… think even December’s dovish holdout, Silvana Tenreyro, will be persuaded of the merits of another move”
  • With Bank Rate at 0.50%, expect the BOE to cease reinvestments and “expect it to announce its intention to go ahead with this policy in full.”
  • On active gilt sales “suspect the Bank may launch a consultation on this, with a view to reporting back as soon as possible”
  • “We think the Bank will continue to forecast inflation around the 2% mark over the medium term. In other words, this forecast would broadly be an endorsement of the market path. That said, we do see a risk that the MPC will forecast marginally above-2% over the medium term, if it draws more of a persistent signal from the latest upside news.”
  • Continue to forecast “three rate 25bps rises (in February, May and August 2022, taking Bank Rate to 1.00%), with passive QT starting in February... However, if or when, and how active sales will start is more uncertain in our view”
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