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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FOREX
- CEE currencies are currently slightly to significantly undervalued relative to the US Dollar according to a range of ‘fair’ value models despite the strong consolidation we have seen in the past two months.
- The chart below ranks the major G10 and CEE currencies based on their percentage difference between the current spot rate and their 'fair' value, which we define using a Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) model (using terms of trade, inflation and 10y interest rate differentials as explanatory variables).
- The HUF remains currently the most ‘undervalued’ currency against the USD (nearly -15.2%).
- CZK and PLN are currently ‘slightly undervalued’ against the greenback, by 2.6% and 2%, respectively.
- AUD is the most undervalued currency among the G10 world as the deceleration in the Chinese economic activity has been weighing on the Aussie (AUD is undervalued by 14.8% against the greenback).
- On the other hand, the CHF remains the most ‘overvalued’ currency against the USD (by 9.4%).
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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