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HUF: EURHUF Reapproaches Post-CPI Lows, Tests Support at 50-Day EMA

HUF

EURHUF is reapproaching yesterday’s low at 392.39 as a fade in the USD index supports the emerging market basket. Pricing for earlier Fed cuts post-CPI – with markets now pricing 23bps of rate cuts for Sept vs. 17bps before the release – supported CEE FX yesterday given the still-favourable interest rate differentials in the region, while a firmer euro today has provided a tailwind to the euro-proxies.

  • For EURHUF, the cross is trading near the 50-day EMA at 392.82. A close below here could undermine the recent bullish theme and expose 390.79, the 50.0% retracement of the May 28 - Jun 14 bull leg. On the other hand, a resumption of gains would open 398.85, the Jun 14 high.
  • There are no data releases scheduled for the entirety of next week, with local focus shifting to the NBH rate decision on July 23. While inflation data for June surprised to the downside, the central bank are generally expected to remain cautious and keep rates unchanged.

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