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HUF: HUF/JPY Over 1% Lower, Trading at 19-Month Low

HUF
CEEMEAEM BulletBulletEmerging Market NewsHungary

The solid extension lower for USD/JPY combined with moderate HUF underperformance has seen HUF/JPY sell off over 1% this morning (bringing post-election losses to over 4%), with the cross trading just below August’s multi-month lows and at its lowest level since April 2023.

  • Escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising international trade concerns since the US election have all contributed to broader pressure on EM FX, with HUF’s particular high beta to risk sentiment prompting an outsized move for HUF/JPY compared to EUR/HUF and USD/HUF.
  • Our DM Markets team note that month-end flows (likely front-loaded this week due to the Thanksgiving market holidays across Thursday & Friday) pointed to USD sales, which will be adding to downside pressure on USD/JPY.
  • In Hungary, local drivers remain few and far between with focus turning to unemployment rate (Est: 4.5%; Prior: 4.5%) and PPI figures for October due Friday morning.
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The solid extension lower for USD/JPY combined with moderate HUF underperformance has seen HUF/JPY sell off over 1% this morning (bringing post-election losses to over 4%), with the cross trading just below August’s multi-month lows and at its lowest level since April 2023.

  • Escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising international trade concerns since the US election have all contributed to broader pressure on EM FX, with HUF’s particular high beta to risk sentiment prompting an outsized move for HUF/JPY compared to EUR/HUF and USD/HUF.
  • Our DM Markets team note that month-end flows (likely front-loaded this week due to the Thanksgiving market holidays across Thursday & Friday) pointed to USD sales, which will be adding to downside pressure on USD/JPY.
  • In Hungary, local drivers remain few and far between with focus turning to unemployment rate (Est: 4.5%; Prior: 4.5%) and PPI figures for October due Friday morning.