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HUF Weakness Likely To Result In More Aggressive Tightening

HUNGARY
  • Yesterday, the NBH decided to raise its 1W depo rate by 30bps to 4.6% (as expected), following its decision to hike the ‘core’ policy rate by 50bps on Tuesday.
  • Based on Barnabas Virag last month, the NBH will now proceed with monthly hikes in the 1W depo rates, likely to hike by another 30bps in March.
  • However, the NBH could once again act via the 1-week facility if the HUF remains weak under the current environment.
  • EURHUF has been retracing sharply higher this week, approaching its key resistance at 370. A break above that level would open the door for a move up to 372. On the downside, first support stands at 366.40, followed by 365.
  • This morning, economic data showed that unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in January (vs. 3.7% exp.), up from 3.7% the previous month.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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