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HUF Weakness May Pressure NBH To Hike More ‘Aggressively’

HUNGARY
  • NBH is expected to raise its 1W depo rate by 30bps to 4.6% in today’s meeting; terminal rate is likely to reach nearly 5% by the end of March (another 30bps hike in March).
  • Selling pressure on HUF has been strong in the past two days as CEE Currencies remain vulnerable to the current environment (i.e. geopolitical risk).
  • In addition, the market was slightly disappointed by the press conference on Tuesday; the ‘little communication’ seems to have been perceived as a ‘dovish’ signal.
  • EURHUF rose to a high of 367.70 earlier this morning before edging lower; the pair is current trading above its 100DMA (361.90).
  • Hence, the significant HUF depreciation may pressure NBH to hike more ‘aggressively’ today as a depreciation domestic currency keeps supporting inflation expectations.
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