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HUNGARY: ING Expect NBH to Be Hawkish but Do Not Foresee Any Emergency Measures

HUNGARY
CEEMEAEM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsHungaryRegion
  • ING expect the Monetary Council to leave the base rate unchanged at next week’s meeting, noting that as the market has the same expectation, the focus will be on the communication and the forward guidance.
  • While some may expect an open communication on rate hikes, citing an emergency case, such an admission itself could turn out to be a self-fulfilling prophecy and would be premature, ING say. They also don't see the central bank pulling the trigger on any kind of liquidity tightening right now. ING expect the central bank to balance the messages - to be hawkish but not to go the extra mile.
  • Looking further ahead, they do not expect another rate cut under the current administration (end of February 2025), and while this is not a high conviction call, the new administration will probably not be able to start cutting rates immediately either, they add.
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  • ING expect the Monetary Council to leave the base rate unchanged at next week’s meeting, noting that as the market has the same expectation, the focus will be on the communication and the forward guidance.
  • While some may expect an open communication on rate hikes, citing an emergency case, such an admission itself could turn out to be a self-fulfilling prophecy and would be premature, ING say. They also don't see the central bank pulling the trigger on any kind of liquidity tightening right now. ING expect the central bank to balance the messages - to be hawkish but not to go the extra mile.
  • Looking further ahead, they do not expect another rate cut under the current administration (end of February 2025), and while this is not a high conviction call, the new administration will probably not be able to start cutting rates immediately either, they add.