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HUNGARY: NBH Expects Volatility in Inflation to Persist This Year

HUNGARY
CEEMEAEM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsHungaryRegion

Highlights from the NBH's September inflation report:

  • The volatility in inflation is expected to persist this year, the disinflationary trend will resume from the first quarter of 2025. Inflation is forecast to continue declining in September and then rise moderately above 4 percent by year-end.
  • We forecast that core inflation excluding indirect taxes, which captures underlying inflation developments, will range from 4.6–4.9 percent in 2024, 3.0–3.6 percent in 2025 and 2.6–3.3 percent in 2026.
  • In the first quarter of 2025 disinflation will resume, which will be supported by a low extrernal cost environment, and next year’s lower backward-looking repricings. The consumer price index will return to the central bank’s inflation target on a sustained basis in 2025.
  • The Magyar Nemzeti Bank estimates that the increase in the transaction levy may increase average annual inflation by 0.1 percentage point this year and by 0.2-0.3 percentage point next year. 

See the full document here. 

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Highlights from the NBH's September inflation report:

  • The volatility in inflation is expected to persist this year, the disinflationary trend will resume from the first quarter of 2025. Inflation is forecast to continue declining in September and then rise moderately above 4 percent by year-end.
  • We forecast that core inflation excluding indirect taxes, which captures underlying inflation developments, will range from 4.6–4.9 percent in 2024, 3.0–3.6 percent in 2025 and 2.6–3.3 percent in 2026.
  • In the first quarter of 2025 disinflation will resume, which will be supported by a low extrernal cost environment, and next year’s lower backward-looking repricings. The consumer price index will return to the central bank’s inflation target on a sustained basis in 2025.
  • The Magyar Nemzeti Bank estimates that the increase in the transaction levy may increase average annual inflation by 0.1 percentage point this year and by 0.2-0.3 percentage point next year. 

See the full document here.