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Hungary To Approve Sweden & Finland Accession, Now Just Turkey Needed

NATO

With the confirmation earlier at the Visegrad 4 summit from Hungarian PM Viktor Orban that his country's parliament would ratify Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO in the new year, Turkey will stand as the only obstacle to the two Nordic nations joining the defensive alliance.

  • Ankara seen as relatively sanguine on Finnish membership, given the country only has a small Kurdish minority. Sweden on the other hand, with a Kurdish diaspora estimated at around 1% of the population, will have to make greater concessions to gain Turkey's support.
  • The Washington Institute for Near East Policy think tank on what it believes will be required from Sweden for Ankara to approve its accession: "Turkey’s parliament is unlikely to put Swedish NATO accession to a ratification vote until:
    • (1) Sweden’s new counter terrorism law goes into effect in early 2023
    • (2) Sweden increases cooperation with Turkey regarding the PKK, such as by obstructing the organization’s fundraising ability on its soil
    • (3) Stockholm demonstrates how far it is willing to go to enforce the anti-incitement provisions of the Madrid memorandum (e.g., by cracking down on the display of PKK flags and other symbols at demonstrations or limiting pro-PKK rallies)
    • (4) Stockholm and Ankara reach agreement on any individuals to be deported to Turkey."
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With the confirmation earlier at the Visegrad 4 summit from Hungarian PM Viktor Orban that his country's parliament would ratify Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO in the new year, Turkey will stand as the only obstacle to the two Nordic nations joining the defensive alliance.

  • Ankara seen as relatively sanguine on Finnish membership, given the country only has a small Kurdish minority. Sweden on the other hand, with a Kurdish diaspora estimated at around 1% of the population, will have to make greater concessions to gain Turkey's support.
  • The Washington Institute for Near East Policy think tank on what it believes will be required from Sweden for Ankara to approve its accession: "Turkey’s parliament is unlikely to put Swedish NATO accession to a ratification vote until:
    • (1) Sweden’s new counter terrorism law goes into effect in early 2023
    • (2) Sweden increases cooperation with Turkey regarding the PKK, such as by obstructing the organization’s fundraising ability on its soil
    • (3) Stockholm demonstrates how far it is willing to go to enforce the anti-incitement provisions of the Madrid memorandum (e.g., by cracking down on the display of PKK flags and other symbols at demonstrations or limiting pro-PKK rallies)
    • (4) Stockholm and Ankara reach agreement on any individuals to be deported to Turkey."