POLITICAL RISK
Foreign Minister and chairman of the centre-right Independence Party (IP) Bjarni Benediktsson has been named as Iceland's new prime minister. Benediktsson, who previously served as PM for 11 months in 2017, takes over from Katrín Jakobsdóttir who is leaving office after six-and-a-half years to run for the Icelandic presidency.
- The composition of the governing coalition is not set to change, with the IP governing alongside the centrist agrairian Progressive Party (PP) and the eco-socialist Left-Green Movement (LG), formerly led by Jakobsdóttir.
- However, Benediktsson's promotion could lead to shifts in two areas.
- Firstly, in the tone of the gov't. While they have worked together since the 2021 parliamentary election, the IP and LG sit on opposite ends of the political spectrum and Benediktsson and Jakobsdóttir are two notably different politicians.
- Secondly, Benediktsson becoming PM will likely mean his resignation as foreign minster. With Jakobsdóttir leaving cabinet, the LG is could demand the foreign ministry as it is losing the PM's office.
- The presidential election is scheduled for 1 June. The position is largely ceremonial, but does have powers in appointing ministers and party leaders to head coalition talks post-election. Presidents can also effectively veto legislation by not signing bills approved by parliament, but this is very seldom used.
- The next parliamentary election is not due until Sep 2025 at the latest. However, opinion polling shows the opposition centre-left Social Democratic Alliance with a sizeable lead and best-placed to put together the next coalition gov't.
Chart 1. Icelandic General Election Opinion Polling, % and 4-Poll Moving Average
Source: Gallup, Maskina, Prosent, MNI
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