IDR Slips Ahead Of BI MonPol Review, Gov Warjiyo Flags Continued FX Interventions

Spot USD/IDR trades +16 figs at IDR15,483, with bulls looking for gains past the 61.8% retracement of the 2020 sell-off/Apr 23, 2020 high of IDR15,574/15,598. Bears keep an eye on Oct 5/Sep 30 lows of IDR15,161/15,150.

• USD/IDR 1-month NDF last +5 figs at IDR15,504. Bulls look for a break above the 50% recovery of the 2020 - 2021 slump located at IDR15,562, while downside focus falls on Oct 5 low of IDR15,158.
• Foreign investors were net sellers of $47.75mn in Indonesian stocks Tuesday, while the Jakarta Comp was little changed come the closing bell. The index has added ~0.25% this morning on a positive lead from Wall Street.
• Palm oil futures have caught a fresh bid in morning Kuala Lumpur trade and the most active contract sits MYR118/MT at typing. The aggregate BBG Commodity Index operates ~0.3% above neutral levels.
• Indonesia's 5-Year CDS premium has tightened this week, moving away from near-cyclical highs. It last prints at 149.3bp, down 5.4bp on the day.
• Bank Indonesia will announce its monetary policy decision tomorrow (our usual preview is forthcoming). 19 analysts in a Bloomberg survey expect a 50bp hike to the 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate, 11 have forecast a 25bp rate rise and one has pencilled in a 100bp move.
• INDOGB 5-Year/10-Year yield spread has narrowed to levels last seen in March 2019, which has been facilitated by Bank Indonesia's "Operation Twist." Still, the premium on Indonesian bonds relative to U.S. Tsys is close to smallest on record.
• Bank Indonesia Gov Warjiyo this morning reaffirmed the target for inflation to return to the target range in 3Q2023, while noting that the central bank will continue to intervene in the market to stabilise the rupiah.