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ASIA FX: IDR Weakens To Fresh Lows Since 2020, BI Pledges Bold Intervention

ASIA FX
BulletEM BulletAPACEmerging Market News

South East Asian currencies are feeling the pressure from stronger USD sentiment more broadly. Whilst equity markets in this region are less exposed to tech trends, bourses, which are open, are tracking lower. Indonesia's JCI was down over 1%, before paring losses. IDR is the weakest FX performer, trailing only won losses within the USD/Asia bloc. MYR is also down sharply, THB is off 0.30%, while PHP has lost 0.20%, leaving the peso a relative outperformer, despite a wider trade deficit earlier. 

  • USD/IDR has surged since the open, playing catch up with USD gains post yesterday's onshore close. We were last 16565/70, fresh highs back to 2020 for the pair. March 2020 highs were at 16625. Headlines have cross from BI that it will boldly intervene to defend the rupiah. The 1 month NDF was last little changed at 16590, per BBG pricing.  
  • USD/MYR is back to 4.4700, upside focus in this pair is likely to rest on any test of the 4.5000 level.
  • USD/THB is back above 34.00, which above the 50-day EMA resistance point. The 100-day isn't too far away at 34.13.
  • USD/PHP has risen back to 57.95/00, so up from recent lows, but still outperforming other parts of SEA FX. Earlier we had Jan trade figures in the Philippines, with the trade deficit widening back out to -$5.1bn, as imports surged to +10.8%y/y. Export growth was up 6.3% y/y (versus -7.0% forecast), so this likely helped at the margins in terms of peso sentiment.  
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South East Asian currencies are feeling the pressure from stronger USD sentiment more broadly. Whilst equity markets in this region are less exposed to tech trends, bourses, which are open, are tracking lower. Indonesia's JCI was down over 1%, before paring losses. IDR is the weakest FX performer, trailing only won losses within the USD/Asia bloc. MYR is also down sharply, THB is off 0.30%, while PHP has lost 0.20%, leaving the peso a relative outperformer, despite a wider trade deficit earlier. 

  • USD/IDR has surged since the open, playing catch up with USD gains post yesterday's onshore close. We were last 16565/70, fresh highs back to 2020 for the pair. March 2020 highs were at 16625. Headlines have cross from BI that it will boldly intervene to defend the rupiah. The 1 month NDF was last little changed at 16590, per BBG pricing.  
  • USD/MYR is back to 4.4700, upside focus in this pair is likely to rest on any test of the 4.5000 level.
  • USD/THB is back above 34.00, which above the 50-day EMA resistance point. The 100-day isn't too far away at 34.13.
  • USD/PHP has risen back to 57.95/00, so up from recent lows, but still outperforming other parts of SEA FX. Earlier we had Jan trade figures in the Philippines, with the trade deficit widening back out to -$5.1bn, as imports surged to +10.8%y/y. Export growth was up 6.3% y/y (versus -7.0% forecast), so this likely helped at the margins in terms of peso sentiment.