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IEA Medium-Term Gas Report Key Takeaways

NATURAL GAS

The IEA published their medium-term gas report, providing an outlook of global supply and demand until 2026.

  • Following a peak in mature markers in 2021, gas demand is set to slow by a third until 2026 while demand in mature markets is expected to decline by 1% per annum over the medium term.
  • Gas demand growth is concentrated in high growth Asian markets, with China taking half of the incremental gas demand during the forecast period.
  • The US will contribute half of the incremental LNG supply, taking its share to 25% by 2026.
  • Overall, 70% of new LNG supply coming online is concentrated in 2025-2026.
  • Northwest Europe is set to lose access to two formerly key sources of supply: pipeline flows from Russian and the Groningen gas field. This loss of supply could keep volatility in the market, as the continent is exposed to spikes through colder weather and an international LNG market.
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