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Implied ECB Cuts Pared Post Waller / Simkus Comments, April No Sure Thing

STIR

Euro rate cut expectations continue to pull back following Fed Governor Waller's speech at 1600UK time which was seen reducing the likelihood of a Fed cut by March, with the move extending after the release of a Bloomberg interview with ECB's Simkus in which he said he was "far less optimistic than markets about rate cuts in March or April".

  • ECB meeting-dated OIS now shows 24bp of reductions through the April meeting though that's 3bp less than pre-Waller/Simkus and 3.5bp less on the session. It's the fewest cumulative cuts implied through April that we have seen since the start of December. (A March cut is just 20% implied, fairly steady on the day.)
  • For meeting dates further on the move is relatively contained, with 2024 total cuts seen at 145bp, 5bp less vs pre-Waller/Simkus and 3.5bp less on the day.


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