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Free AccessImplied ECB Cuts Pared Post Waller / Simkus Comments, April No Sure Thing
Euro rate cut expectations continue to pull back following Fed Governor Waller's speech at 1600UK time which was seen reducing the likelihood of a Fed cut by March, with the move extending after the release of a Bloomberg interview with ECB's Simkus in which he said he was "far less optimistic than markets about rate cuts in March or April".
- ECB meeting-dated OIS now shows 24bp of reductions through the April meeting though that's 3bp less than pre-Waller/Simkus and 3.5bp less on the session. It's the fewest cumulative cuts implied through April that we have seen since the start of December. (A March cut is just 20% implied, fairly steady on the day.)
- For meeting dates further on the move is relatively contained, with 2024 total cuts seen at 145bp, 5bp less vs pre-Waller/Simkus and 3.5bp less on the day.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.