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Implied Front Rates Back Towards Recent Highs

US EURODLR FUTURES
  • Eurodollars have moved lower today, led by reds with both Jun'23 & Sep'23 at -6 ticks.
  • The move has been more restrained in the whites but the Dec’22 is still down -4 ticks at 98.755. It’s close to lows from earlier in the week (98.74 Jan 11) as markets revert to moving closer to pricing in four hikes for 2022.
  • Waller (permanent voter) gave some mixed comments late yesterday. He sees three rate hikes as “still a good baseline”. “If inflation stays high could be four even five hikes” but he also acknowledged that if inflation abates as many forecasters and him expect (he sees inflation ~2.5% end-22) then “you could actually pause and not even go the full three”. Balance sheet shrinking could start by the summer, with organic runoff.
  • Williams (permanent voter) is the only FOMC member scheduled to speak today ahead of the media blackout starting midnight.
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