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Implied Probability Of Biden Dropping Out Spikes After Pelosi Comments

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Traders again believe that President Biden is more likely than not to drop out of the presidential race after comments from former House Speaker Nancy (D-CA) that were widely interpreted as a subtle hint that Biden should withdraw, particularly as they came on MSNBC's Morning Joe - Biden's favourite news show.

  • Markets were initially convinced that a White House offensive had done enough to see off a Democrat rebellion, but after Pelosi's comments, Biden's implied probability of dropping out spiked from roughly 30% to over 50%, according to Polymarket.
  • Pressure on Biden is likely to intensify in the coming hours. Frontline Democrats, many of whom believe a Biden-led ticket would be a drag on their re-election prospects, met with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) a short time ago.
  • At around 12:00 ET 17:00 BST, the Congressional Black Caucus will hold their regular gathering. Any sign of a loss of support amongst the CBC, so far robustly backing Biden, could be terminal for Biden. Jeffries is a prominent voice within the CBC, so it is likely he will convey concerns raised this morning.
  • In the last hour, Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) has told reporters he is "deeply concerned about Biden winning this November," a marked change of tone from yesterday when he said: "Biden is the Democratic nominee..., he has my support."
  • Actor and Democrat activist George Clooney has penned a scathing NYT op-ed calling on Biden to withdraw, noting that when he met Biden three weeks ago, "He was the same [diminished] man we all witnessed at the debate."
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Traders again believe that President Biden is more likely than not to drop out of the presidential race after comments from former House Speaker Nancy (D-CA) that were widely interpreted as a subtle hint that Biden should withdraw, particularly as they came on MSNBC's Morning Joe - Biden's favourite news show.

  • Markets were initially convinced that a White House offensive had done enough to see off a Democrat rebellion, but after Pelosi's comments, Biden's implied probability of dropping out spiked from roughly 30% to over 50%, according to Polymarket.
  • Pressure on Biden is likely to intensify in the coming hours. Frontline Democrats, many of whom believe a Biden-led ticket would be a drag on their re-election prospects, met with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) a short time ago.
  • At around 12:00 ET 17:00 BST, the Congressional Black Caucus will hold their regular gathering. Any sign of a loss of support amongst the CBC, so far robustly backing Biden, could be terminal for Biden. Jeffries is a prominent voice within the CBC, so it is likely he will convey concerns raised this morning.
  • In the last hour, Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) has told reporters he is "deeply concerned about Biden winning this November," a marked change of tone from yesterday when he said: "Biden is the Democratic nominee..., he has my support."
  • Actor and Democrat activist George Clooney has penned a scathing NYT op-ed calling on Biden to withdraw, noting that when he met Biden three weeks ago, "He was the same [diminished] man we all witnessed at the debate."