Implied Probability Of Biden Dropping Out Spikes After Pelosi Comments

Traders again believe that President Biden is more likely than not to drop out of the presidential race after comments from former House Speaker Nancy (D-CA) that were widely interpreted as a subtle hint that Biden should withdraw, particularly as they came on MSNBC's Morning Joe - Biden's favourite news show.

• Markets were initially convinced that a White House offensive had done enough to see off a Democrat rebellion, but after Pelosi's comments, Biden's implied probability of dropping out spiked from roughly 30% to over 50%, according to Polymarket.
• Pressure on Biden is likely to intensify in the coming hours. Frontline Democrats, many of whom believe a Biden-led ticket would be a drag on their re-election prospects, met with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) a short time ago.
• At around 12:00 ET 17:00 BST, the Congressional Black Caucus will hold their regular gathering. Any sign of a loss of support amongst the CBC, so far robustly backing Biden, could be terminal for Biden. Jeffries is a prominent voice within the CBC, so it is likely he will convey concerns raised this morning.
• In the last hour, Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) has told reporters he is "deeply concerned about Biden winning this November," a marked change of tone from yesterday when he said: "Biden is the Democratic nominee..., he has my support."
• Actor and Democrat activist George Clooney has penned a scathing NYT op-ed calling on Biden to withdraw, noting that when he met Biden three weeks ago, "He was the same [diminished] man we all witnessed at the debate."