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Improvement In Small Business Pricing Plans Stalls

US DATA
  • Details of yesterday’s CFIB small business survey for November showed three-month ahead pricing plans were unchanged from October’s survey with a net 34% planning increases.
  • The sideways move after previously increasing off a recent low of 31 in Sept confirmed a slowdown in moderation of inflationary pressures, but nevertheless implies a marked decline in Y/Y inflation towards 4-5% could be seen in mid-2023 judging by the historical relationship - see chart.
  • As with a variety of core inflation measures though, whilst a good step, the Fed will likely want to see continued progress at dampening inflationary pressures, hence increased focus on the labour market.

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