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Income Growth Helps Consumption Trend Resilience

US DATA
  • Personal income and spending growth was broadly as expected in November, with incomes slightly stronger (+0.4% vs cons 0.3) and a small miss for nominal spending (0.1 vs cons 0.2) offset by an upward revised Oct.
  • The combination saw real spending flat in Nov but with prior momentum holding the 3m/3m run rate at a solid ~3.5% annualized, relative resilience compared to the rolling over in nominal retail sales.
  • On the flip side, real disposable income growth held at 0.3% M/M, helping the trend rate continue to accelerate to almost 2.5% annualized.
  • This has come about as the (nominal) savings ratio has levelled off in the past couple months, increasing two tenths off historical lows to 2.4% but still quickly running down ‘excess savings’ drawn from pre-pandemic trends.

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