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Incoming Data Points To Euro Area HICP Downside Miss

EUROZONE

October flash Euro area inflation is tracking at below 3.0% Y/Y, vs the 3.1% estimate coming into the week. Albeit with under 50% of countries by Eurozone HICP weight reporting, MNI's early tracking estimate is 2.9% assuming tomorrow's figures are in-line.

  • Germany (3.0% Y/Y), Spain (3.5%), Belgium (-1.7%) and Ireland (3.6%) have already reported and combined make up 44% of the basket; tomorrow morning among others we get France (4.5% expected), Italy (2.2%), and the Netherlands (-0.7%). Those represent another 42% of the basket, though IT's release comes alongside the Eurozone-wide one.
  • Core is more challenging to estimate but given what we've seen in the details in German and Spanish releases we would currently expect risks to the 4.2% Eurozone core HICP estimate to lie to the downside.
A couple of updated analysts' expectations:
  • Barclays: 2.9% (had been 3.1% prior to today's releases), core "could print at" 4.1% (vs 4.2% they had expected).
  • Nomura: Nowcast shows 2.9% (their f'cast was 3.0%); core "may print at" 4.0% (their f'cast was 4.2%).
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