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Incoming Election Results Offer No Reprieve To ANC

SOUTH AFRICA
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timePolitical RiskPolitical Risk BulletBulletEmerging Market News
  • South African assets were under pressure on Thursday as early election results suggested that the support for the ruling African National Congress (ANC) fell below 50% by a larger margin than expected, raising uncertainty around the post-election coalition arrangement. Regional results showed further setback for the party party, as it suffered heavy losses in the two most populous provinces. The Daily Maverick reported that the ANC has made overtures to the DA and IFP about a possible three-way coalition in KwaZulu-Natal, as it looked set to lose control of the province to ex-President Jacob Zuma's MK Party. National results were particularly favourable for the former president's party, as it leap ahead of the EFF to claim third place. Separately, the Electoral Commission (IEC) corrected its initial projection of a "high" voter turnout, noting that the long queues to polling stations may have reflected logistical issues rather than participation. The results continue to trickle in, but the IEC's election website is suffering a temporary outage when this is being typed.
  • The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) left interest rates unchanged in a unanimous vote at a meeting overshadowed by the election. The central bank predicted a faster return to the inflation target mid-point, which it now expects to happen in 2Q2025 rather than end-2025.
  • South Africa's private sector credit rose 3.90% Y/Y in April, beating the consensus forecast of +4.59%, while M3 money supply increased by 5.75%. The focus turns to April trade data, which will hit the wires at 13:00BST/14:00SAST.
  • The National Treasury will auction 2.500% 2046 and 5.125% 2058 linkers today.
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  • South African assets were under pressure on Thursday as early election results suggested that the support for the ruling African National Congress (ANC) fell below 50% by a larger margin than expected, raising uncertainty around the post-election coalition arrangement. Regional results showed further setback for the party party, as it suffered heavy losses in the two most populous provinces. The Daily Maverick reported that the ANC has made overtures to the DA and IFP about a possible three-way coalition in KwaZulu-Natal, as it looked set to lose control of the province to ex-President Jacob Zuma's MK Party. National results were particularly favourable for the former president's party, as it leap ahead of the EFF to claim third place. Separately, the Electoral Commission (IEC) corrected its initial projection of a "high" voter turnout, noting that the long queues to polling stations may have reflected logistical issues rather than participation. The results continue to trickle in, but the IEC's election website is suffering a temporary outage when this is being typed.
  • The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) left interest rates unchanged in a unanimous vote at a meeting overshadowed by the election. The central bank predicted a faster return to the inflation target mid-point, which it now expects to happen in 2Q2025 rather than end-2025.
  • South Africa's private sector credit rose 3.90% Y/Y in April, beating the consensus forecast of +4.59%, while M3 money supply increased by 5.75%. The focus turns to April trade data, which will hit the wires at 13:00BST/14:00SAST.
  • The National Treasury will auction 2.500% 2046 and 5.125% 2058 linkers today.