Incumbent Socialists on course to retain...>

PORTUGAL: Incumbent Socialists on course to retain power in October 6

legislative election despite narrowing of opinion polls in recent days. 

- PM Antonio Costa's Socialist Party (PS) likely to win plurality, with polls

putting the party at 35-39% in polls in October. Main opposition centre-right

Social Democrats on around 25-28%. 

- If polling reflected in result, this would be enough for PS to win plurality,

but not majority. PS will require support from leftist Unitary Democratic

Coalition and/or Left Bloc to secure working majority. 

- Left-leaning gov't unlikely to result in major uptick in fiscal expenditure,

with Costa's coalition maintaining a relatively narrow budget deficit despite

pressure from coalition allies over past 4 years.  

- Portugal set to remain one of few EU member states without a right-wing

nationalist party in parliament, and one of few where the main centre-left party

is not struggling to retain support.