Incumbent Vs Libertarian In November Runoff, Uncertainty Persists

With 86% of the vote for President counted the current Economy Minister Massa, a Peronist, is in first place with 36% of the vote and libertarian Milei is second with 30%. There will a runoff election held on November 19. Pro-business Bullrich was third on 24% and it will remain to be seen where her votes will go in November poll.

• According to Bloomberg, the Argentine peso is 20% stronger versus the greenback on local cryptocurrency exchanges following the announcement of the results. Before this election the government said that it would keep the peso peg until November 15 and then the official peg would be devalued 3% per month. Milei plans to dollarize the economy in an effort to save it from collapse.
• Bloomberg is reporting that this is the worst outcome for investors and that there will be another month of uncertainty, as neither Massa nor Milei has released details of their policies. Also the incumbent interventionist Peronist government is likely to implement additional fiscal stimulus in the lead up to the runoff to get its candidate over the line thus fuelling inflation further which currently stands at 138%. This strategy seems to have worked in getting Massa into first place in Sunday’s election.
• With the end to Bullrich’s campaign, there is a risk that a coalition between her party and Milei’s may not be enough to force a change in government. The Peronists have run Argentina for most of this century.
• Turnout was 74%, higher than for the primaries.