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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EUROZONE DATA
The Eurozone wage tracker published by job listing company Indeed shows growth slowed to 3.71% Y/Y in February (vs 3.97% prior), but the 3-month moving average annual rate rose for a third consecutive month to 3.90% (vs 3.85% prior). Pushing the 3mma rate higher was Germany, where wage growth continued to buck the overall trend of moderating wage tracking.
- German Y/Y wage growth tracked 4.4% in February (vs 4.2% prior), while the 3mma measure also rose to 4.4% (vs 4.3% prior). The next release of the Bundesbank's closely-watched negotiated wage data is expected towards the end of this week/early next week.
- Spain saw the most disinflationary national-level dynamics, with Y/Y wage tracking at 3.8% Y/Y (vs 4.5% prior) and the 3mma measure at 4.5% (vs 4.8% prior). In France, Y/Y tracking was steady at 3.0% Y/Y while the 3mma measure fell to 3.2%.
- Indeed also tracks Italian wages, though this data is not always updated consistently, so we avoid reading much into the data.
- The ECB projects a slowdown in compensation per employee growth in Q1, to 4.4% Y/Y (the Q4 final reading was 4.6% Y/Y).
- While Indeed's January and February Y/Y wage tracking indicates moderations vs Q4 readings, the trend of the 3m/3m measure suggests limited downside risks to the ECB's projections.
- Similar dynamics in March may not stand in the way of a June ECB cut (not least because Indeed will be viewed alongside HICP/national accounts data at the time), but may prompt an additional degree of caution amongst the more hawkish cohort of the Governing Council.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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