EUROZONE DATA
The Eurozone wage tracker published by job listing company Indeed shows growth slowed to 3.71% Y/Y in February (vs 3.97% prior), but the 3-month moving average annual rate rose for a third consecutive month to 3.90% (vs 3.85% prior). Pushing the 3mma rate higher was Germany, where wage growth continued to buck the overall trend of moderating wage tracking.
- German Y/Y wage growth tracked 4.4% in February (vs 4.2% prior), while the 3mma measure also rose to 4.4% (vs 4.3% prior). The next release of the Bundesbank's closely-watched negotiated wage data is expected towards the end of this week/early next week.
- Spain saw the most disinflationary national-level dynamics, with Y/Y wage tracking at 3.8% Y/Y (vs 4.5% prior) and the 3mma measure at 4.5% (vs 4.8% prior). In France, Y/Y tracking was steady at 3.0% Y/Y while the 3mma measure fell to 3.2%.
- Indeed also tracks Italian wages, though this data is not always updated consistently, so we avoid reading much into the data.
- The ECB projects a slowdown in compensation per employee growth in Q1, to 4.4% Y/Y (the Q4 final reading was 4.6% Y/Y).
- While Indeed's January and February Y/Y wage tracking indicates moderations vs Q4 readings, the trend of the 3m/3m measure suggests limited downside risks to the ECB's projections.
- Similar dynamics in March may not stand in the way of a June ECB cut (not least because Indeed will be viewed alongside HICP/national accounts data at the time), but may prompt an additional degree of caution amongst the more hawkish cohort of the Governing Council.
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