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INDIA: RBI Governor Cautious on Inflation.

INDIA
  • RBI Governor Das aired is concerns as to the potential for an inflation surprise going forward during an interview with the Business Standard Newspaper (as per BBG).
  • “We have to be very cautious in our future course of action,” he said.
  • Das went on to effectively pave the way for a change in stance by the RBI at the next meeting, without the need to cut rates saying “A change in stance doesn’t mean the next step is a rate cut in the very next meeting.”
  • The Central Bank has received criticism for sticking to the RBI’s forecast for GDP growth of +7.2% despite the headwinds of softer consumption and activity in urban areas.
  • Gas described a rate cut at this stage for the Indian economy as ‘risky’.
  • The RBI meets next month for their final monetary policy meeting for the year where no change to policy is expected.
  • Using the MIPR function on BBG shows that current market pricing is consistent with no change, and one cut is priced in for 2025. 
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