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India Will be Leading Driver of Demand Growth to 2030: IEA

OIL

India will be the leading driver of consumption growth through to 2030 due to healthy economic expansion, dynamic population, urbanisation and industrialisation growth according to the IEA.

  • India was the world’s second-largest crude oil net importer in 2023 and increased refining processing will lift crude oil imports further, to 5.8mb/d by 2030.
  • Oil demand in India will rise by 1.2mb/d in the 2023 -2030 period to reach 6.6mb/d and accounts for more than one-third of global oil demand growth of 3.2mb/d.
  • Diesel/gasoil is the largest source of oil demand growth due to massive industrial expansion accounting for 500kb/d of growth.
  • Gasoline demand will grow by 0.7% on average but limited by rising electric-vehicle sales. New EVs and energy efficiency improvements will avoid 480kb/d of extra oil demand in the 2023-2030 period.
  • Jet-kerosene demand is set for strong growth of 5.9% per year on average, but from a low base compared to other countries.
  • At least 1mb/d of new refinery distillation capacity will be added taking capacity to 6.8mb/d or more. Product exports are set to reach 1.4mb/d by the middle of the decade, then fall to 1.2mb/d by 2030 due to a steady rise in domestic demand.
Energy BulletsCommodities
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