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(Z1) Off Lows, But Remains Weak


Still Vulnerable


Bullish Price Sequence

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  • INDIA: Yields higher in early trade. Short end yields declined yesterday after the government kept borrowing plans unchanged amid speculation of an increase to address local government revenue shortfall due to the pandemic. The government kept the fiscal year borrowing amount unchanged at INR 12.05tn, 2H borrowing will be slightly larger than initially planned at INR 5.03tn, due to lower borrowing in 1H. The unchanged borrowing plan rebuts comments from Finance Minister Sitharaman who said that borrowing could be up to INR 1.6tn higher than initially thought. Bonds could still come under pressure during today's session after US yields hit the highest levels since June while crude futures have continued their rally into a sixth day. Elsewhere markets await an INR 2tn 7-day reverse repo auction today, while Indian finance ministry officials are said to be meeting representatives from Moody's rating agency today and plan to pitch for a sovereign rating upgrade.
  • SOUTH KOREA: Futures lower in South Korea, tracking a move lower in US tsys seen on Monday. 3-Year future is down 6 ticks at 109.45, 10-Year future is down 32 ticks at 124.59. The move lower in futures comes despite a broad risk off tone with the KOSPI down around 0.75%. Markets are ignoring a rise in consumer confidence data earlier in the session. The US/SK has narrowed to 106.22bps, down from 134bps hit in early September. Elsewhere markets continue to digest comments from FSC chairman Koh yesterday that there will be additional measures next month to curb household debts.
  • CHINA: The PBOC injected CNY 100bn via 14-day reverse repos for the second day, addressing the usual month-end liquidity concerns while the National Day holiday later this week has also increased liquidity demand. Repo rates are higher, the overnight repo rate up 28.25bps at 1.9325%, the 7-day repo rate is up 42bps at 2.52% which is near recent month end peaks. At the end of June the 7-day repo rate briefly spiked to 3.60%. Futures are lower, tracking a move in UST's that has seen bonds in Asia sell off. Elsewhere Sunac's dollar bonds rebounded after the company refuted claims it had asked for government support.
  • INDONESIA: Yields higher across the curve, markets continue to digest comments from BI Gov Warjiyo that rate hikes would be on hold for most of 2022 due to downside risks to the economic outlook. Warjiyo also said that the Central Bank will slowly reduce liquidity in the system, and that GDP growth was expected at 4.6%-5.4%, while CPI is expected to remain subdued in 2022.