Industrial Production Rebounds Less Than Expected in June

France Industrial Production disappointed on both a yearly and monthly basis again in June at -1.6% Y/Y (vs -1.1% consensus, -3.1% prior) and 0.8% M/M (vs 1.0% consensus, -2.2% prior revised from -2.1%).

• The softer than expected reading was largely due to manufacturing production (which accounts for over 80% of industrial production) rebounding less than expected and only rising 0.8% M/M (after falling -2.7% last month). 'Extractive industries, energy and water' production printed a smaller gain of 0.7% M/M (vs 0.8% M/M prior) - its fourth consecutive gain albeit softest.
• Within manufacturing production, only 2 of 5 subcomponents deteriorated (hence whilst the reading was weaker than expected it was an improvement from May's reading). In particular, Agri-food and Capital goods production fell 0.3% M/M (vs -0.5 prior) and -1.1% M/M (vs -4.8% prior).
• Meanwhile, 3 of 5 components of manufacturing production rose. 'Other industrial products' (which makes up around 50% of the manufacturing production weighting) rose 0.5% M/M (after falling 3.5% in May). There were larger increases for transport equipment production printing 3.4% M/M (vs -0.5% in May) and Coking and refining production at 12.3% M/M (vs 4.3% prior).
• The press release notes production in Q2 2024 was lower than the same quarter in the previous year in the manufacturing industry at -1.4% and industry as a whole at -1.2%.