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Industrial Slump Continued In October With Broad-Based Decline

EUROZONE DATA

Data released today showed Eurozone Industrial Production came below expectations in October at -0.7% M/M (vs -0.3% consensus, -1.0% prior) - the 4th M/M decline in the past 5 months. It also disappointed Y/Y at -6.6% Y/Y (vs -4.5% consensus, -6.8% prior).

  • On a monthly basis, intermediate goods (-0.6% M/M), Capital goods (-1.4% M/M), and Non-durable consumer goods (-0.6% M/M) contributed to the fall. Whilst, Energy (+1.1% M/M) and Durable Consumer goods (+0.2% M/M) rose slightly.
  • On an annual basis, all sub-components remained on a downturn, although energy’s rate of decrease has fell sharply to -0.5% Y/Y (vs -6.0% prior) – the smallest fall this year so far.
  • Among member states, Ireland skewed data down printing at -7% M/M (vs -2.2% prior) and -34.0% Y/Y.
  • Important to note that although Y/Y this is the lowest reading this year so far for Ireland, Ireland data has been very volatile and CSO Ireland is carrying out a review of the seasonal adjustment methodology for industrial production.
  • Excluding Ireland, the M/M decline was closer to 0.3% M/M, better than the 0.7% eurozone-wide print, but the weakness was broad-based. The Netherlands contributed the most (ex-Ireland) to the decline production with the largest Y/Y fall since April 2023 printing at -11.1% Y/Y and -2.1% M/M - the third consecutive M/M fall.
  • For the first time this year all 5 of the largest euro economies reported negative M/M results, with: Germany printing -0.1% M/M, Italy at -0.2% M/M, France at -0.3% M/M and Spain at -0.6% M/M.mmeuroIP.JPG

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