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Inflation Accelerates as Energy Support Measures Unwound

FRANCE DATA
MNI (London)

FRANCE JAN FLASH HICP +0.4% M/M (= FCST); DEC -0.1% M/M

FRANCE JAN FLASH HICP +7.0% Y/Y (= FCST); DEC +6.7% Y/Y

  • French harmonised inflation was in line with consensus expectations, at +0.4% m/m (after -0.1% in Dec), rising 0.3pp to +7.0% y/y in the January flash (only 0.1pp below the November high).
  • French inflation had been expected to reaccelerate in January due to the winding back of government energy support measures which saw fuel and regulated gas prices jump recently.
  • Food and prices accelerated further, both up over 1pp at +13.2% y/y and +16.3% y/y national CPI rates in January.
  • Services prices stabilised on the month and slowed by 0.3pp to +2.6% y/y. Manufactured goods prices held steady at +4.6% y/y, yet declined on the back of winter sales.
  • As such, the data provides evidence for stable or slowing core inflation, which remained sticky at +5.3% y/y in November and December. This is unlikely to cancel out the jump in Spanish core CPI, which will add to the aggregate eurozone print due tomorrow and adds further pressure on the ECB's hawkish bent.

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