Free Trial

Inflation Breakevens Unwind Week’s Decline

US
  • After a string of steady declines, inflation breakevens are responding to the move higher in equities and oil prices by continuing to rise strongly, with the 5Y +9.5bps and 10Y +8bps (the latter corresponding with a -5bp decline in real yields).
  • For context though, that only sees the 10Y breakeven back to levels from late last week at 2.645%, down almost 30bps on the month and 43bps from the April peak.
  • Earlier, NY Fed research presented fresh evidence that consumers still do not expect the current spell of high inflation to persist long into the future, but also that there’s a surprising divergence in the medium-term with a larger share expecting high inflation but a growing share expecting low inflation or even deflation 3-years out.

10Y breakeven pops higher (yellow). Real yields shown green and nominal yields white. Source: Bloomberg

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.