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Inflation Contained, BI Focus On IDR

INDONESIA

Indonesia’s CPI inflation for October was close to the Bloomberg consensus. Inflation remains moderate and within Bank Indonesia’s target band for 2023 and 2024 but that may not be enough to prevent a further rate hike to attract portfolio flows and contain imported inflation. Today USDIDR has jumped to 15950 as the market waits for the upcoming Fed decision. This is close to the October high, which will not be welcomed by BI. The next meeting is November 23.

  • Headline printed in line with consensus at 2.6% y/y up from 2.3% due to higher food and transport inflation. Core inflation was slightly lower than expected at 1.9% down from 2% in September, the lowest since January 2022. It is now slightly below the bottom of this year’s 2-4% target band but it shifts down to 1.5-3.5% for 2024.
  • Food, drink & tobacco saw a pickup in October to 5.4% y/y from 4.2%. Transportation rose 1.2% y/y up from 1% but utilities edged lower to 1.2% from 1.3%. Most other components were steady or down slightly.
Indonesia CPI y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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