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Inflation Data Coming Up (1700BST/1900 local)

RUSSIA
Inflation data is on the docket at 1700BST/1900 local time. As per the median of the Bloomberg survey of analysts, inflation likely increased from +5.15% y/y in August to +5.90% in September. The monthly figure is seen crossing at +0.75% compared to +0.28% prior.
  • UniCredit say inflation likely accelerated to 0.7-0.8% m/m in September, driven by a surge in fuel prices, still elevated domestic demand and pass-through effects from a weakening RUB, bringing annual inflation to about 5.9%. They say recent inflation, FX and bond-yield dynamics suggest there is growing risk that the CBR might increase interest rates higher than their forecast of an extra 50bp of tightening this year.
  • Goldman Sachs expect inflation to continue rising to +6.0% y/y. In their view, loose fiscal policy has been largely to blame for the sustained price pressures. Although the recent increase in oil price will likely lower fiscal deficits, inflation expectations in September came in at +11.7%, and Goldman Sachs continue to believe that the economy is running significantly above potential.
  • In light of the ongoing inflationary pressures and strong growth outlook combined with the narrowing current account surplus, Goldman Sachs are bringing forward the 100bp hike they had previously expected in Q1 2024 to the upcoming meeting in October.
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