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Inflation data due at 7:00BST

UK DATA
  • The most notable of the UK data releases this week will be inflation data which is due at 7:00BST.
  • Headline CPI is expected to increase from the May release of 9.1%Y/Y with the Bloomberg median at 9.3%Y/Y (with some downside risks). However, core CPI is expected to slip back slightly from 5.9%Y/Y to 5.8%Y/Y according to consensus (with more balanced risks).
  • If consensus forecasts are realised, we would see headline CPI move to a new cycle high but the second consecutive fall in core CPI.
  • Markets currently price 45bp for the August MPC meeting and Governor Bailey said in his Mansion House speech yesterday that a 50bp move was not a certainty but was being considered by the MPC. Further 50bp hikes are almost fully priced for September and November with 176bp cumulatively priced by December and markets now fully pricing a further 25bp hike by May 2023.
  • We therefore see risks of bigger market moves to a downside surprise in this morning's data. Like with other UK data releases recently, the pound reaction may be a little muted until SONIA futures open at 7:30BST (unless there is a large surprise).
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