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Inflation data due at 7:00GMT

UK DATA
  • UK inflation data for October is due for release at 7:00GMT.
  • Consensus expects headline CPI to reach 3.9% Y/Y, up from the September print of 3.1% Y/Y. Looking at the distribution of the Bloomberg survey, there appear to be two-way risks to the print.
  • Rising fuel prices and supply shortages continue to put upward pressure on UK inflation, coupled with the Ofgem price cap increase of 12.2% coming into effect on 1 October boosting energy prices.
  • Annual core CPI is predicted to rise more moderately to 3.1% Y/Y, following 2.9% Y/Y in September as supply shortages induce input cost inflation and used car prices remain high.
  • RPI is forecast to increase to 5.7%Y/Y from 4.9%Y/Y last October.
  • Yesterday's UK labour market data saw markets focus on the seemingly smooth end to the furlough programme (based on the experimental HMRC RTI payroll data) and largely ignore a mildly disappointing wage print. The short sterling strip moved lower with the Mar-22 contract down 4.5 ticks and Reds down 7.0-7.5 ticks on the day while EURGBP move to its lowest levels of November.
  • Given this reaction, we think there are two-way risks to market moves off the back of today's data. A lower print could see markets unwind some of the moves seen yesterday while a higher print could get the market even more overexcited.
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