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Inflation Expectations Ease Further Signalling Lower Price Pressures

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RBNZ Q3 business inflation expectations eased to lows not seen since H1 2021. 1-year ahead moderated 0.3pp to 2.4% and 2-year ahead 0.3pp to 2.0%, both of which are in the band and the latter at the mid-point and signalling further downside in the CPI. With easing in demand and the labour market and inflation expectations around target, the RBNZ can communicate a rate hike before the end of the year at its August 14 meeting, which will also include updated staff forecasts. But with elevated domestic inflation, we don’t see a cut in August. Household inflation expectations are released on August 13.

NZ inflation expectations vs CPI y/y%

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RBNZ Q3 business inflation expectations eased to lows not seen since H1 2021. 1-year ahead moderated 0.3pp to 2.4% and 2-year ahead 0.3pp to 2.0%, both of which are in the band and the latter at the mid-point and signalling further downside in the CPI. With easing in demand and the labour market and inflation expectations around target, the RBNZ can communicate a rate hike before the end of the year at its August 14 meeting, which will also include updated staff forecasts. But with elevated domestic inflation, we don’t see a cut in August. Household inflation expectations are released on August 13.

NZ inflation expectations vs CPI y/y%

Keep reading...Show less