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Inflation Expectations Pull Back On Oil Slide

US
  • Ahead of tomorrow's US CPI, market-based inflation expectations have pulled back notably from early morning highs as oil slides 13-14% on the day.
  • 5Y breakevens are down 14bps at 3.39% since the US came in, whilst 5Y5Y inflation swaps are down 6bps at 2.69%.
  • Putting them into perspective, the 5Y breakeven is still 58bps higher than after the last FOMC on Jan 26 whilst 5Y5Y swaps are 22bps higher.

US 5Y inflation breakeven (white), US 5Y5Y inflation swaps (yellow), differential (green) and EU 5Y5Y (purple)Source: Bloomberg

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