November 15, 2023 08:41 GMT
Inflation Expectations Remain Well Anchored
Swedish money market participant's inflation expectations remained well-anchored at the 2/5Y horizons, with CPIF seen at 2.1% Y/Y as in October.
- Note that the survey end date for inflation/GDP expectations was November 13, while the policy rate/yield/SEK questions were asked on November 7 - i.e. before the latest CPI report.
- 1Y-ahead CPIF expectations sit 0.1pp higher at 2.8% Y/Y, but this follows a 0.4pp fall to 2.7% in October after 3.1% in September.
- The Riksbank has previously commented that inflation expectations have remained well-anchored, and today's data continues to support this narrative. Positive commentary surrounding inflation expectations is thus likely to continue in November, with actual inflation readings - alongside labour market and SEK developments - remaining the main factors used to determine the next move.